- U.S. fiber operators are set to reach 139 million total passings by 2030, says NSR
- Fiber is poised to expand to 84% of cable’s existing territory
- The fiber industry is optimistic that Trump’s new tax law will boost operator cash flow
All hands are on deck in the fiber broadband race, as operators continue craving expansion and acquisition. Assuming all goes according to plan, New Street Research projects the U.S. fiber industry to reach a collective 139 million locations passed by 2030.
The country by then will likely be left with about 55.3 million locations that will offer “adequate returns for fiber investment,” analysts wrote in NSR’s latest Broadband Insights report.
Per NSR’s estimates, roughly 86 million U.S. locations today can be served by fiber and consulting firm RVA has similarly noted the U.S. has about 88.1 million FTTH passings.
As for the major operators, they indeed have lofty fiber ambitions.
AT&T, which is plotting 60 million total fiber locations by 2030, said starting next year it will be able to deploy fiber to an additional one million locations annually due to the tax provisions in President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The company is also buying Lumen’s consumer fiber business for $5.75 billion.
Verizon meanwhile expects to build one million or more annual fiber passings once it closes its $20 billion Frontier acquisition, with the goal of reaching 30 million combined locations by 2028. T-Mobile, with its Lumos and Metronet acquisitions in the bag, is eyeing 12-15 million more fiber passings in the next few years.
Can they all make it? Signs point to yes, as New Street said most operators are currently deploying at a pace that will allow them to meet their 2030 fiber targets – without butting heads with one another.
“There is enough opportunity for operators to meet their targets without getting in each other’s way,” analysts wrote.
Fiber providers, however, will continue to encroach on cable’s territory. Assuming operators will deploy to all locations that offer attractive returns, fiber availability is poised to expand to 84% of existing cable locations. Talk about a takeover.
Altice USA is by far “the most exposed today” to fiber competition, according to NSR, “however, Cox and Comcast will catch up.”
Fiber broadband's tax break
Although the revised Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program has nixed the preference for fiber optic technology, the fiber industry is more optimistic than ever that deployments will keep on rolling.
With the OBBB signed into law, the Fiber Broadband Association believes operators could potentially unload more of their deployment costs.
The new tax policy “allows operators to depreciate 100% of select equipment purchases and capital expenditures,” said FBA chief Gary Bolton in an email to its members.
“The net result of the change is a potentially significant increase in cash flow for most operators, especially when you consider that the largest operators in the country spent around $80 billion in combined CapEx in 2024,” he added.