- Oracle said a new customer deal will bring in $30 billion in annual revenue starting in its fiscal 2028
- The deal will massively boost Oracle's revenue and could help its position in the overall cloud market as well
- The identity of its partner is unknown, but analysts have some good guesses
Is Oracle stepping up to the big leagues? CEO Safra Catz announced the company has signed an enormous cloud deal poised to boost Oracle’s annual revenue by 150% from its fiscal 2025 level.
The deal, which was revealed in an 8-K filing, is “expected to contribute more than $30 billion in annual revenue starting in FY28.” It was apparently one of “multiple large cloud services agreements” Oracle has closed thus far in its fiscal Q1 2026. The company did not name any of the customers party to the deals in question.
The amount is staggering considering Oracle’s full year revenue came in at $57.4 billion in its fiscal 2025 (the 12 months ended May 31, 2025).
For further context, $30 billion is nearly equivalent to Google Cloud’s full-year 2023 revenue. It also represents nearly a tenth of the $330 billion in revenue the overall cloud infrastructure services market hit in 2024.
The scale of the deal raises two key questions: What does this mean for Oracle’s market position? And who has pockets deep enough to be the unnamed customer?
Oracle's mystery partner
Oracle did not name the customer in its $30 billion deal, leaving the door open for speculation. Could it be Oracle’s existing partner Microsoft, which is scrambling to fill a $315 billion pipeline of performance obligations? Or OpenAI, which is beefing hard with its current partner Microsoft and may be making contingency plans?
Recon Analytics Director and Analyst Daryl Schoolar agreed OpenAI is in the running.
“The case for OpenAI is that there were reports in early June that Oracle was shopping for 5GW of U.S. data center capacity, to support OpenAI training workloads,” he told Fierce. “This 5GW is believed to be separate of any investments the companies are making as part of Stargate Project.”
But he also pointed to G42 as another, potentially more likely, candidate. Founded in 2018, G42 is a United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based AI tech holding company. It is notably involved in the recently announced StarGate UAE project.
“The case for G42 is that it announced in May of this year it plans to build a regional AI campus in Abu Dhabi in partnership with U.S. hyperscalers. The campus will include 5GW of data center capacity,” Schoolar noted. “G42 also announced earlier this year that it was working with Oracle to develop healthcare-centric AI solutions.”
Market position
As of the end of 2024, Oracle held around 3% market share in the cloud infrastructure services market, according to Synergy Research Group. That put it roughly fourth behind Amazon (30%), Microsoft (21%), Google (12%) and Alibaba (4%).
But could a deal of this size shake things up?
“I think this does move the needle for Oracle, both in terms of revenue and in terms of its standing among peers like Azure, AWS, Google Cloud, etc.,” Moor Insights & Strategy VP and Principal Analyst Matt Kimball told Fierce. “OCI continues to pull in those bigger names that are data driven organizations (e.g., Uber). It is proving to be a solid first choice – not just an alternative.”
While some have expressed concerns about Oracle’s ability to balance its infrastructure play and expansion efforts with its other businesses, Kimball said he’s “not worried.” He noted Oracle has been in the infrastructure game for a “long time” and should easily be able to “absorb this business – and more – without” fumbling the ball.
Schoolar pointed out that such a high-profile win could also help Oracle make the short list for AI developers looking for a cloud partner.
Synergy Research Group's Chief Analyst John Dinsdale was a bit more reserved in his assessment.
He told Fierce that when it comes to the $30 billion number attached to the deal, some skepticism is healthy, especially given the lack of specifics around the news. He noted there has been a trend of people and companies announcing huge numbers with few details to back them up, and he said analysts treat news like this as a bit of marketing "smoke and mirrors."
That said, if one were to take the $30 billion figure at face value, "it would certainly be meaningful," Dinsdale said.
"We don't know exactly what products or services are behind the number, but if we were to assume that the majority is IaaS/PaaS-like cloud infrastructure services, it might represent 3-4% of the worldwide market in 2028," he said. "So yes, that would probably move the market share needle a bit if it were true."
Dinsdale said that the deal aside, Oracle still deserves credit for embracing cloud and Ai opportunities in a way that is changing its trajectory. He pointed out that Oracle's growth rate and cloud revenue growth are the highest they've been in two years and capex intensity has soared to levels previously unthinkable for the company.
"Its quarterly capex still remains far behind Amazon, Microsoft and Google, but it is now at a level where it can start to distance itself from the second tier of cloud providers."
UPDATE 7/2/2025 9:45 am ET: This story has been updated to include comments from Synergy Research Group.